Yellowstone has a mysterious and unearthly beauty. Its hydrothermal displays make it an enormous tourist attraction. Almost 3,500,000 million visitors tour its grounds every year, but Yellowstone is a potential threat locally, nationally and globally.
Will Yellowstone erupt?
There is plenty of geophysical data that another caldera-forming eruption is possible, but it is unlikely that a eruption at Yellowstone National Park will occur in the next thousand or even 10,000 years, but it will happen (Smith, 2000). Over the past 30 years of scientific monitoring, geological activity at Yellowstone has remained relatively constant. The gas released through the hydrothermal features, minor earthquakes, and ground fluctuations are normal for a caldera system such as Yellowstone. Scientists would have advance notice of a threat of an eruption. Days and weeks before an eruption occurs, there would be an increase in earthquakes and ground heating and deformation, and chemistry changes in groundwater and gas composition (Sparks, 2005). This would offer time for officials to determine the danger of the situation and warn the public (Green, 2009).
What will happen if Yellowstone erupts?
Immediate devastation.
The severity of the effects of an eruption depends on the distance from the super volcano. Scientists can only speculate what will happen when Yellowstone erupts. The way to determine its devastation is to investigate past records of prior eruptions in the area surrounding the park along the Snake River Plain. In the future, according to Breining (2007), magma from underneath the Yellowstone plateau would explode through the earth’s crust and vaporize the surrounding mountains. The plateau would fall into the empty magma chamber which would form another caldera. Pyroclastic flows of cinders and ash mixed with gas would explode into the stratosphere, traveling over 250mph forming huge toxic hurricane-like incandescent clouds (Sparks, 2005). Destructive lahars, a mixture of mud and lava, would speed eighty miles down the Madison, Gallatin, and Yellowstone rivers southward through the Snake Valley. The hot lava, once cooled, would form welded tuff that would be 500 to 2,500 feet thick and cover over 6,000 square miles. All of the landscape, forests, and canyons would be vaporized and buried in welded ash and mud (Van Rose, 1992). All the living would be asphyxiated by poisonous gases and buried as well (Sparks, 2005). Yellowstone National Park and all the towns surrounding at least a hundred miles away from the park would be destroyed (Breining, 2007). An estimated 87,000 people would die immediately (Smith, 2000). Yet, the National Park Service believes the most likely activity would be lava flows such as those that occurred after the last major eruption. Such a lava flow would ooze slowly over months and years, allowing plenty of time for park managers to evaluate the situation and protect people. They state that no scientific evidence indicates such a lava flow will occur soon (NPS, 2012).
Local devastation.
If the volcano within Yellowstone were to erupt, the catastrophic event would inevitably involve a great number of people and would cause the destruction of vast urban and industrial areas. An eruption of Yellowstone would be dangerous because it would discharge huge amounts of ash and gas into the atmosphere, disturb the climate, devastate the flora and fauna of entire regions and cause environmental changes. (Rosi et al., 1999). Humans have experienced the devastation of volcanic eruptions but not of a magnitude of a super volcano. People could be unable to escape from the effects of its destruction. Locally, tens of thousands would die instantly from the pyroclastic flows and poisonous gases. Millions will be affected by ash fall (Sparks, 2005). Clouds full of tephra, ash, volcanic gases would spread out in all directions. The heaviest particles of ash would fall to earth first and finer particles would get caught up in the jet stream. Populations within 100 miles will be covered by ash several feet thick. Winds will cause the ash to drift and fill streams and rivers with sediment. People would go into respiratory distress from breathing in the fine ash (Green, 2009). If rain follows the blast, it would mix with the ash, and cause mudflows. The lahars would travel down valleys, sweeping away roads, bridges, and flood communities (Van Rose, 1992). In order to avoid death, there would be widespread evacuation of the surrounding areas. Smith (2000) imagines American refugees crowding at the Mexican border.
Communication breakdown, Famine and Thirst.
Communications would be disrupted as ash blocked radio waves and phone signals from satellites (Sparks, 2005). Due to abrasive ash, power plants, generators, and machinery would need to shut down. Land and air transportation would cease for days or weeks. Food and medical supplies would not be able to reach areas most in need (Green, 2009). According to U.S. Geological Survey disaster planners, land will be untillable for many generations where ash is deeper than a foot (Breining, 2007). Crops and pasture grasses would be smothered and die which destroy future harvests. Domestic livestock would have respiratory distress and die from starvation and thirst. City officials would require water supplies to be rationed and boiled to prevent disease. Ash would block sewers and pipes carrying wastewater. Ash sediment would clog channels and rivers, for example, the Mississippi, closing down the transportation route for much of the nation’s and the world’s grain, resulting in worldwide famine problems. Inhospitable conditions in the Midwest would persist for a decade (Smith, 2000).
Volcanic Winter.
Ash gradually settles out of the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, hydrogen chloride, and hydrogen flouride remains airborn much longer. Sulfur dioxide, when mixed with water, converts into sulfate aerosols and forms into vast clouds in the middle and lower stratosphere. These clouds encircle the globe within weeks of the eruption, reflecting and absorbing the sun’s radiation for at least 2-3 years (Sparks, 2005). This phenomenon causes the earth’s upper atmosphere to warm and the lower atmosphere to cool, deteriorating the ozone layer. The average temperature of the planet will drop several degrees, resulting in a decade-long volcanic winter. Dry fog would hang in the polluted air. The low temperatures cause poor harvests, resulting in many regions of the world to face famine. Rainforests along the equator would freeze and die. The entire biosphere and carbon cycle would be affected (Sparks, 2005).
Death and Chaos.
A volcanic eruption is among the most catastrophic and destructive events to occur on our planet. There are no strategies to avoid volcanic eruptions. According to Breining's interview with NYU Professor Michael Rampino, "One seventh of the world’s population – a billion plus people might die" (Breining, 2007, p. 234). A super eruption would cripple the United States, causing the nation to be vulnerable to enemies. America would not be able to deliver aid to other countries in distress, resulting in political turmoil. Part of the global economy would be incapacitated, if not devastated. Global food and trade production would be disrupted An eruption of Yellowstone would threaten civilization the species of humankind (Sparks, 2005).